J.P. Morgan sees oil demand growth at its slowest in nine months in December

(Reuters) – Early data indicates global oil consumption in December grew at the slowest pace in nine months, J.P. Morgan said in a note on Friday.

The research firm, however, said despite undershooting expectations in the last month of 2023, global oil demand growth was in line with yearly expectations.

While demand in December possibly grew 1.3 million barrels a day year-on-year, demand for the whole of 2023 was estimated to have grown 1.8 million barrels a day.

U.S. gasoline demand in the last month of 2023 is expected to come in at 8.6 million barrels a day – 100,000 barrels a day lower than what was expected two weeks ago by the New York-based firm. [EIA/S]

In Europe, most countries reported a decline in oil demand due to continued weakness in industrial fuels, LPG and lower seasonal uptake in due to a milder winter.

China’s demand shows the country saw an average of 16.4 million barrels a day in the last quarter of 2023 – 100,000 barrels a day above J.P. Morgan estimates.

Investors and analysts expect interest rate cuts in major oil-consuming regions and lower oil prices to boost the demand.

The difference between the IEA and OPEC estimates for demand growth this year stands at 1.15 million bpd in 2024 – equivalent to roughly 1% of daily world oil use for oil in the year.

A Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts forecasts to average $84.43 a barrel and to average $78.84 in 2024. [O/POLL]