Five Below reports Q4 beat, shares drop 4% on dull outlook

By Davit Kirakosyan and Senad Karaahmetovic

Five Below (NASDAQ:) shares are down over 3% in pre-open Thursday on the company’s reported dull outlook, despite Q4 results beating estimates.

Q4 came in at $3.07, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.06. Revenue increased 12.7% year-over-year to $1.12 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.11B. Comparable sales rose 1.9% year-over-year.

President and CEO Joel Anderson said that the company plan to open a record 200 new stores in 2023, convert 400 stores to the new Five Beyond format, roll out new categories and services and enhance marketing, all while leveraging data analytics and its five-node DC network to continue to deliver the Wow that is its customer promise.

The company expects Q1/24 EPS in the range of $0.59-$0.65, compared to the consensus of $0.68, and revenue in the range of $723-$735M, compared to the consensus of $731M.

For the full year, the company expects EPS of $5.25-$5.76, compared to the consensus of $5.67, and revenue of $3.49-3.59B, compared to the consensus of $3.58B.

Guggenheim analysts raised the price target on the Buy-rated FIVE stock by $10 per share to $220 despite conservative guidance.

“We believe the business should exit the year with strong top-line momentum and on a path to accelerated intermediate-term margin expansion. We raise our 2023 and 2024 estimates but stay below consensus in light of an uncertain operating environment. Although the shares may need to digest the somewhat softer 1H outlook, we believe duration investors can buy them with an eye towards 2024,” the analysts said.

Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted commentary about a strong month of January.

“Key takeaways from the quarter include 1) new store openings remains the primary growth driver for FIVE and the company expects to add 200 stores in FY23 (an acceleration from 150 in FY22), while the conversion of 400 existing stores to the new Five Beyond format should also bolster the company’s top line, 2) guidance for FY23 could prove to be conservative, and we note upside from potentially better-than-expected sales and margins, and 3) FIVE’s debt free balance sheet remains attractive in the current environment,” they wrote in a note.