Natural gas’ $3 razzle-dazzle over in just a day

Investing.com — Now you see it, now you don’t: That’s how natural gas’ latest run to $3 pricing was, with speculation of production tightness resulting in a near 7% rally unwound within a day by a bearish storage report.

The front-month September gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub settled at $2.763 per mmBtu, or million metric British thermal units — down 19.6 cents, or 6.6% on the day.

In Wednesday’s session, September gas settled up 6.6% as well, after reaching a near seven-month high of $3.018. Prior to that, the last time gas prices on the hub crossed $3 was during the week to Jan. 20, when they peaked at $3.595.

That rally was triggered by speculation that America’s favorite fuel for indoor cooling and heating might be facing a supply squeeze from pipeline issues.

Prior to Wednesday, the market had been stuck at mid-$2 for months as production often came in higher than thought, with weather conditions less intense than projected, resulting in less power burns than forecast for heating and cooling.

Analysts at Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets advisory, had warned earlier this week about maintenance issues on the NEXUS and REX pipelines that could slow gas production, which had often breached the daily threshold of 1 billion cubic feet, or bcf.

Nexus is an approximately 256-mile, 36-inch interstate transmission pipeline designed to transport up to 1.5 bcf of daily gas delivery from feed points in eastern Ohio to southeastern Michigan. REX, an acronym for the Rockies Express Pipeline, is a 1,679-mile (2,702 km) long gas delivery gas system from the Rocky Mountains of Colorado to eastern Ohio.

But any concerns of supply tightness were offset by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report Thursday on natural gas inventories, which showed gas stockpiles rising 29 billion cubic feet, or bcf, during the week ended Aug. 4 — versus a forecast injection of 25 bcf and a prior weekly build of 14 bcf.

Total gas held in underground caverns across America was at 3.03 trillion cubic feet last week — up 21.4% from a year ago and 11.2% higher versus the five-year average.

“Large buying from short-covering is therefore likely finished for now and will no longer provide bullish support,” Gelber’s analysts added.