Home price growth dips to lowest levels since 2012: CoreLogic

Home price growth increased by 2% in April, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast. That marked the lowest annual home price growth since March 2012. 

Despite this cooling of home price growth, housing affordability has remained a long-term issue, CoreLogic said. April’s home price growth data signaled the 135th consecutive month of annual gains. However, it also represented the sixth straight month of single-digit increases. This means home price growth has slowed down from its all-time high of nearly 20% annual elevation in the spring of 2022, CoreLogic reported.

Still, numerous factors have kept some potential home buyers at bay, CoreLogic reported. 

“While mortgage rate volatility continues to cause buyer hesitation, the lack of for-sale homes is putting firm pressure on prices this spring, leading to above-average seasonal monthly gains and a rebound in home prices in most markets,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said in a statement. “Nevertheless, the recent surge in mortgage rates and continued inflation issues suggest that rates may remain elevated, leading home price appreciation to possibly relax this summer and return to average seasonal gains later in 2023.”

“Still, while slim inventory is pushing prices up once again and constraining affordability.” Hepp continued, “Recent trends suggest that home price growth in 2023 will fall in line with the historical 4% annual average.”

However, CoreLogic predicted that home price growth would increase by 4.6% year-over-year from April 2023 to April 2024.

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Home prices across the nation 

While home price growth increased at a single digit level nationally in April, some cities saw significant increases. Miami experienced a 13.2% year-over-year home price increase in April. That marked the highest spike out of the 20 metro areas CoreLogic tracks. 

Atlanta ranked No. 2 with a 4.8% increase, CoreLogic said. But other areas also saw sharp home price increases. Here are the states that had the most significant annual home price growth in April. 

• Indiana: +7.3%
• New Jersey: +7.1%
• Missouri, South Carolina and Vermont: +6.9%

However, some states saw drops in annual home prices. Here are the ten states that had home price declines year-over-year in April, CoreLogic reported. 

• Washington (-7.7%)
• Idaho (-5.9%)
• Utah (-4.9%)
• Nevada (-4.5%)
• California (-3.6%)
• Arizona (-2.6%)
• Oregon (-2.6%)
• Colorado (-2.1%)
• Montana (-1.1%)
• New York (-1.1%)

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The Fed could raise interest rates after pause

While data has shown a decline in home price growth, the interest rate environment remains volatile. After raising interest rates 10 times since last year, the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes in June. However, the move still left the federal funds rate at a 16-year-high range of 5% to 5.25%.

Any movement in the federal funds rate could affect interest rates on financial products such as credit cards and mortgages.

The last time the Fed raised interest rates was in May when the central bank hiked rates by 25 basis points. The move came following banking sector turmoil sparked by the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. 

“The fast and large increase in rates contributed to the collapse of these banks,” Dawit Kebede, a senior economist at the Credit Union National Association (CUNA), said in a statement.

And despite the interest rate pause in June, Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinted during a press conference that Fed officials may consider raising interest rates by another half percentage point before the end of 2023. 

But future interest rate movements may be likely as banking turmoil didn’t result in the reduction of credit availability the country’s central bank was expecting, a CoreLogic economist said. 

“The likelihood of another hike or two has also increased given the lack of credit crunch the Fed was expecting from the banking sector,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said in a statement. “As a result, mortgage rates, while still on a gradual decline, are likely to remain higher through the remainder of the year.”

If you’re worried about future mortgage rate hikes, you could lock in a good rate today by shopping around for the best offers. Visit Credible to compare mortgage options from multiple lenders at once, without affecting your credit score.

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